一份看淡電力股的報告
外資券商JP Morgan昨天發表了一份看淡電力股的報告,下調華潤電力(00836)的目標價至17.5元,導致華潤電力昨天股價大跌近5%,股價見今年全年低位!
《大行報告》摩通降中國電力(2380)及潤電(836)評級至「中性」 明年面對電價下調風險。
JPM看淡電力股,主要基於經濟低迷及煤炭價格低迷的情況下,明年國內電價有下調的風險。報告原文如下:
Concerns on tariff cut may start to emerge in 4Q:
Power generators have enjoyed 20% tariff hike above benchmark prices since early 2022. We believe tariff cut may occur next year amid >30% decline in coal prices YTD,as the government may trim power tariff to support the industrial sector. While the magnitude of the tariff cut is uncertain,we assume 5-10% tariff cut in our model,which is close to the recent monthly power prices. A 1% tariff cut will shave IPPs’ ~5% 24E PBT on our estimates,hurting Huaneng the most (~8%). While coal prices have remained sluggish amid weak demand,any rebound next year may hurt
IPPs,as honor rate for long-term contracts only reached ~70% for Huaneng and China Resources Power in 1H23.
根據JPM看法,今年第4季將簽定的明年電力合約,電價有下調的風險,JPM按目前短期合約電價去預期明年電價會下調5-10%。
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